NOAA: El Nino likely to cut number of storms in 2014 hurricane season

MIAMI (WCIV) -- In its 2014 Atlantic hurricane season outlook issued today, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a near-normal or below-normal season.Scientists said the outlook this year is based on the anticipated development of El Nio this summer, which causes stronger wind shear. The stronger shear reduces the number and intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes, NOAA officials said."El Nio can also strengthen the trade winds and increase the atmospheric stability across the tropical Atlantic, making it more difficult for cloud systems coming off of Africa to intensify into tropical storms," officials said in a statement Thursday morning.As a result, the NOAA outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a small chance of an above-normal tropical season in the Atlantic.For the six-month hurricane season that begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico."Thanks to the environmental intelligence from NOAA's network of earth observations, our scientists and meteorologists can provide life-saving products like our new storm surge threat map and our hurricane forecasts," said Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D., NOAA administrator."And even though we expect El Nio to suppress the number of storms this season, it's important to remember it takes only one land falling storm to cause a disaster."Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said the Atlantic -- which has seen above-normal seasons in 12 of the last 20 years -- has been in an era of high activity for hurricanes since 1995. However, this high-activity pattern is expected to be offset in 2014 by the impacts of El Nio, and by cooler Atlantic Ocean temperatures than we've seen in recent years."Atmospheric and oceanic conditions across the tropical Pacific are already taking on some El Nio characteristics. Also, we are currently seeing strong trade winds and wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, and NOAA's climate models predict these conditions will persist, in part because of El Nio," Bell said. "The expectation of near-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures this season, rather than the above-average temperatures seen since 1995, also suggests fewer Atlantic hurricanes."For 2014, NOAA is also rolling out new tools at the National Hurricane Center, including an experimental mapping tool to show communities their storm surge flood threat.NOAA officials said the map will be issued for coastal areas when a hurricane or tropical storm watch is first issued, or approximately 48 hours before the anticipated onset of tropical storm force winds. The map will show land areas where storm surge could occur and how high above ground the water could reach in those areas.Officials said early testing on continued improvements to NOAA's Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model shows a 10 percent improvement in this year's model compared to last year. Hurricane forecasters use the HWRF along with other models to produce forecasts and issue warnings."It only takes one hurricane or tropical storm making landfall to have disastrous impacts on our communities," said Joe Nimmich, FEMA associate administrator for Response and Recovery. "Just last month, Pensacola, Fla., saw five inches of rain in 45 minutes -- without a tropical storm or hurricane. We need you to be ready. Know your risk for hurricanes and severe weather, take action now to be prepared and be an example for others in your office, school or community."May 25-31 is National Hurricane Preparedness Week. Learn more about how to prepare for hurricanes at Links:Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season Outlook discussion: Nio/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic discussion: Hurricane Preparedness Week:{}
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